With all the rain and storms sweeping through Perth, I figured it was a good time to talk about winter weather in relation to our school holiday program, KIN Village. Specifically, how we keep an eye on the forecast, what we look for in the lead-up to a session, and how we respond when the weather gets wild and conditions change during the program.
Whilst our highest priority is always safety, we believe in the importance of playing outside in all kinds of weather. Developing a healthy relationship with weather is a big part of helping children build resilience. They learn to dress for it, adapt, and even enjoy it. Weather becomes not just as a challenge to overcome, but a key part of connecting with nature. It brings forth new ways to play, engage and learn outdoors, The Danish have a wonderful saying, “Der findes intet der hedder dårligt vejr, kun dårligt påklædning!” or “there is no such thing as bad weather, just unsuitable clothing!” We agree wholeheartedly! Some of our favourite program moments have happened in the rain. There’s something magical about children building cubbies in their gumboots, faces lit up, embracing whatever the weather throws at them.
When we make decisions about our programs, we are always looking to strike a balance between caution, and not hindering these important experiences. As you will see, we take this process very seriously!
How We Monitor the Weather
Our weather-watch starts weeks out from our school holiday programs. We start with the long-range forecast which, although not always reliable, gives us a general idea of what to prepare for. As we get closer, we switch to 7-day forecasts from a few different weather platforms.
Before we go any further, I want to quickly dive into the world of weather forecasting itself. It’s far more complex (and fascinating) than most people realise!
A Quick Forecasting Detour
I recently attended a workshop run by the National Centre for Outdoor Risk and Readiness called Weather Ready: Workshops for Outdoor Operations. One of the presenters was Anthony Cornelius from WeatherWatch, and he did a great job breaking down how forecasting works and why it’s an incredibly tricky job, with results that often have great uncertainty.
Essentially, meteorologists use a series of computer models that simulate the atmosphere using hundreds of variables. The tricky bit? There are lots of different models out there, and they all make slightly different assumptions about how the atmosphere behaves. Sometimes they agree, sometimes they don’t and even a tiny change in one part of the system can cause big differences elsewhere.
Anthony used a great analogy to explain this. Imagine you’re heading to Margaret River. If you leave at 4am, Google Maps might say it’ll take you between 2 hours 40 minutes and 3 hours 20 minutes. But if you leave at 4pm on a Friday, suddenly that changes to 3 hours 10 minutes to 4 hours 20 minutes. Same road, same car, different traffic conditions. Weather forecasting is kind of like that, just with even more variables in play.
Different Forecasts, Different Information
There are different types of weather forecasts available to consumers. Some, like Windy.com or The Weather Channel, pull directly from the raw computer models. These can be handy for spotting trends, but they often change a lot from day to day, especially when looking at forecasts more than a week out. Other sources like the Bureau of Meteorology or WillyWeather use those same models as a base, but meteorologists add their interpretation and expertise. These forecasts usually give you a range or a probability, rather than one specific number, and tend to be more stable day to day.
What We Look For
Once we’re a few days out from the program, we compare a few different Bureau of Meteorology products and Windy.com, looking at the forecast for our specific location. We often get emails through from parents, expressing concern after hearing the forecast in the car or on the news. These forecasts are an average, for the greater Perth area, and are often not reflective of how the weather will actually be on the ground that day! Instead, Windy.com gives us an exact temperature or wind speed at an exact location at an exact time, but we treat this with caution as it is solely model based. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts in a 6km x 6km grid for each 3 hour period in the day. The easiest way to see this on the BOM website is using the MetEye tool, or in the BOM App, and it provides us with a specific prediction for each of our sites.
The difficult step is determining what is most likely to happen. With so much information available it can be quite hard, especially where there is conflicting information. This is where historical weather data comes in handy. We look at which models have gotten it right the past few days, but also draw on our experience running programs in these locations for the past 11 years. We’re definitely not claiming to know more than the Bureau of Meteorology, but our local insight can help us make better decisions about accommodations that need to be made at our programs.
Conditions we Monitor
When it comes to making decisions about weather in winter, the three main elements we are taking into consideration: heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms. Here’s how we handle each.
Rain
Rain, on its own, doesn’t usually stop us. It’s more about what it brings with it. Flooding, for example, is very unlikely at our sites, but because we’re near the river, we keep an eye out for any localised flood warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology just in case.
To help everyone stay dry when significant rain is forecast, we put up a shelter tarp in our home base area and provide extra tarps for building ‘waterproof’ cubbies. Rainy days are great for our participants to testing out their construction skills and practice independence in looking after their bodies! The added water also provides a resource to extend play in the form of trapping and controlling the water as it moves through the space. When it rains we encourage children to wear their raincoats, bring spare clothes, and change into dry clothes if they get wet. These are all elements that help empower them to feel confident in winter and develop weather related resilience.
Wind
Extended strong winds can cause significant discomfort, while sudden wind gusts can lead to damage in the surrounding environment. It can be difficult to visualise exactly what different wind speeds mean in practical terms, for example, what does a 30 km/h wind actually feel like, and what impact might it have? The Beaufort Wind Scale, outlined here, provides helpful guidance on observable conditions associated with various wind speeds.
Many weather forecasts report both wind speed and wind gust speed, and it is important to understand the difference. Wind speed typically refers to the sustained wind, the average wind measured over a set period, usually ten minutes, giving a sense of the general strength of the wind. In contrast, wind gusts describe brief, stronger bursts of wind caused by turbulence or localised conditions, and these can be significantly more intense and unpredictable. When planning outdoor activities, it is essential to consider both, as gusts can be far more hazardous than the steady wind alone might suggest.
Wind is often associated with thunderstorms, presenting further risks if strong enough to bring down branches or trees. In the case of damaging wind forecasts, we make adjustments to our program to maintain safety, such as relocating activities or avoiding areas with larger trees.
We also need to consider the impact of strong winds combined with heavy rain, which can compromise shelter structures and, when paired with cold temperatures, lead to prolonged discomfort. While some degree of discomfort can help build resilience, maintaining safety and wellbeing is always our top priority.
| Beaufort scale number | Term | km/h | Description on Land |
| 0 | Calm | 0 | Smoke rises vertically |
| 1-3 | Light winds | 19km/h or less | Wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary vanes moved by wind. |
| 4 | Moderate winds | 20-29km/h | Raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved. |
| 5 | Fresh winds | 30-39km/h | Small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelet form on inland waters. |
| 6 | Strong winds | 40-50km/h | Large branches in motion; whistling heard in telephone wires, umbrellas used with difficulty. |
| 7 | Near gale | 51-62km/h | Whole trees in motion; inconvenience felt when walking against the wind. |
| 8 | Gale | 63-75km/h | Twigs break off trees; progress generally impeded. |
| 9 | Strong gale | 76-87km/h | Slight structural damage occurs – roofing dislodged; larger branches break off. |
| 10 | Storm | 88-102km/h | Seldom experienced inland; trees uprooted; considerable structural damage. |
| 11 | Violent storm | 103-117km/h | Very rarely experienced – widespread damage |
| 12+ | Hurricane | 118km/h or more | Very rarely experienced – widespread damage |
Thunderstorms
Thunderstorms are the biggest weather-based safety risk for our programs and also the hardest to predict. They form when warm and cold air mix high in the atmosphere, and lightning happens when ice particles create static charge in the clouds.
The Bureau of Meteorology often uses phrases like “chance of thunderstorms” or “thunderstorms are likely” to communicate the probability of storm activity. A “chance of thunderstorms” indicates that conditions are favourable for storms to form, but there is still uncertainty about their development, location, and timing. In contrast, “thunderstorms are likely” reflects a higher level of confidence that thunderstorms will occur somewhere within the forecast area.
What makes thunderstorms tricky is that severe thunderstorm warnings don’t come with a lot of notice, unlike severe weather that can have up to 36 hour’s notice with updates every 6 hours, severe thunderstorm warnings are not issued for all thunderstorms and often are issued with only 3 hour’s notice and the cover a large area.
When a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for an area during the program we monitor the storm closely across the rain radar, MetEye and the satellite imagery, we monitor the speed and direction of travel and if the storm is headed our way.
All our sites have access to shelter if a thunderstorm rolls in and we have some key triggers in place for when this process is to start. If it looks like it’s going to pass quickly, we’ll wait it out. If it’s hanging around, we may need to pause or even cancel the program for the day.
What About Cancelling a Program?
Cancelling a program is never a decision we make lightly. It’s always a balance between considering the safety of the children at the program and giving families enough notice to find alternatives, especially for school holiday programs. If we do cancel ahead of time, it’s usually because we’ve seen consistent trends in the forecast pointing to a combination of heavy rain, damaging winds, and thunderstorms that would significantly impact safety.
We don’t just consider the weather, but also the location, and the children participating in the program. Our more exposed locations, Pelican Point and Crawley, are more uncomfortable in wind. Accordingly, we tolerate a higher degree of wind in Guildford, which is well sheltered by steep banks and trees. We also consider the composition of the group we are expecting that day. Older children generally have more self-responsibility and resilience. They will put raincoats on themselves and get changed if they are really wet. They’re likely to be more proficient builders too, enjoying the challenge of the wet weather for constructing shelters. If a group has a good split of ages, older children bring up the energy. Younger children learn from them, copying their proactive behaviour and utilising the shelters they create. This gives our facilitators more time to assist participants who may need a bit of extra support in adapting to the weather. Occasionally, we will have a group enrolled that is very young across the board. Our facilitators are well-trained for this, stepping in to act as older mentors where needed. However, in the case of significantly challenging weather, we may make the call that we won’t be able to provide the support necessary for the group.
Ultimately, we add up all the factors – the participants, location and the probable weather conditions – and then make a unique decision for each session.
In a Nutshell
Weather can be unpredictable but with solid planning, a bit of flexibility, and a lot of experience, we can still play outside safely in rainy weather. From a purely adult perspective, it would be a whole lot easier for us to cancel a program if it is going to rain. Our equipment would stay dry and ready for the next session! However, it’s our philosophy to be enablers of play and nature connection. Experiencing all kinds of weather conditions helps children develop connection to the outdoors, resilience, perseverance and problem solving. Permission to play in the rain is not something that children get a lot these days, in part due to adult fear of forecasts and weather conditions. As Nature Connection mentors, we balance safety with the play needs of children. We put aside our fears, to create engaging, and memorable days outdoors.
As the climate continues to change, we are going to continue to experience more extreme weather events. We want to empower children to continue to play outdoors and help adults make informed decisions around safety.
